There’s been lots of discussion of what the de-facto basing of up to 2,500 US Marines at a training area in the Northern Territory means. There’s been blather about Guam, Okinawa and Chinese missile strike capability, for instance.
Perhaps the armchair generals know better, but shifting a tiny fraction of the US forces currently deployed in Guam and Okinawa to northern Australia doesn’t seem to alter that vulnerability one iota – unless you’re planning to shift a whole lot more in the future. In which case, what purpose does the initial presence serve?
Then we have the tripwire theory advanced by Peter Hartcher, that says that Australia’s security planners are getting so paranoid about Australia’s military vulnerability that having 2,500 American marines as (effectively) human shields serves to placate their nerves.
Aside from the frankly alarmist (and needlessly provocative) reading of Australia’s security situation, if Australia needs an American tripwire, we already have one. It’s called Pine Gap, and it’s been sitting in the Australian outback for 40 years.
The broader political context here is of course American policy towards China’s growing economic and military strength. But on the specifics of the base, well, I’m just not buying the discussion so far.
